Thursday, May 12, 2005

Plateaus Suck!

Did you ever get the feeling you were late to the paradigm? It's so strange these days to keep reading how the 'cutting edge' keeps moving faster than those supposedly in it?

Seth Godin, author and overall nudge (in a good way!) drew a map for us recently...
http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2005/05/the_new_digital.html

Inside the world of Chaos Nation, none of this surprises us. We have this little pal called
Moore's Law - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law#Formulations_of_Moore.27s_law that had this all called in advance back in 1965! Now the attention is shifting from just tracking the upper limits of technological advances of integrated circuits to the more far-reaching impact of the Law of Accelerating Returns, which among other things forecasts rates of progress that will lead to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light. Ouch! This smacks of the AI visions that have not exactly fit this curve...Observe:

"An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). Ray Kurzweil -
http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1

Why do I mention all this? Way over on the 'other side' of the house, there's a little backwater in consciousness studies called dromology. It's steward, Paul Virilio says this:
"Three physical barriers are given: sound, heat and light. The first two have already been felled. The sound barrier has been cut across by the super- and hypersonic aircraft, while the heat barrier is penetrated by the rocket taking human beings outside the earth's orbit in order to land them on the moon But the third barrier, that of light, is not something one can cross: you crash into it. It is precisely this barrier of time which confronts history in the present day." -
Seems like both the techies and the metaphorists in Chaos Nation have the same idea.
I wonder if they'll both show up 'in time'?
Off the clock, MRF 05.12





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